Thing One…

Come to the Basin Reserve this Thursday, 24 November, from 5.30-6pm and show your opposition to the New Zealand Transport Agency’s Basin Reserve flyover plans. It’s easy, it’s quick – see you there!

For more details, see the Save the Basin Reserve website.

… and Thing Two

Check out your transport voting choices on the excellent new Smart Transport New Zealand website. Will you vote for dinosaurs or bright ideas? It’s your choice.

I have a friend who lives at Paekakariki. When he bought his house it was a small, quiet seaside town. Now it is a small seaside town, but not quiet. The main road traffic roars past day and night, ruining his peace.

And there are many people in Pukerua Bay, Plimmerton, Mana, and Paremata telling the same story.

It is these people who have been pushing for the Transmission Gully Motorway (TGM) – the knight in shining armour that will rescue them from the traffic baddie. With TGM roads will once again be empty of traffic, there won’t be big trucks, local traffic will be able to easily move around, and people will stroll and cycle along pleasant roadways.

Another group of champions have been people concerned about Pauatahanui Estuary. Existing traffic along the roads next to the Estuary is producing contaminated stormwater that is adding to the problems for the Estuary.

Costs and Benefits

Is TGM worth the cost – $2 billion and damaged ecosystems – and will it really deliver? Or will it just create a whole new set of problems and become a Trojan horse?

According to NZTA’s data in its application, people at Paremata will get a reduction in traffic in 2026 from a projected level of 60,600 to 44,100 cars a day. That may make a slight difference to people trying to drive around the roundabout, but will probably not be noticeable to residents and pedestrians. If you currently cross the road by the railway overbridge, you’ll have to keep doing that.

And along the road south of the estuary it is similar: 16,800 only reduces to 12,600 – not really the answer to the stormwater pollution problem.

But things get better the further north you go. At Mana the reduction is from 35, 000 to 20,500. Probably not enough to make any difference to how the road works, but maybe a bit quieter at some times of the day. At Paekakariki the picture is much better – 22,900 becomes 3,100.

But even at 3100 cars per day, NZTA’s own guidelines say that unless you reduce the traffic speed to somewhere around 50km/hr you will still need separate cycle lanes – that’s just too much traffic for cyclists to be safe at open road speeds, never mind fun.

In addition, the reduction may not be the same for all types of vehicles. In the original designation hearing, NZTA’s expert said that only 30-40% of trucks would use Transmission Gully, because it was so steep and long. There’s no reason to think that the situation will be any different now. Truckies have always said they will go on using the coastal route. So the reduction of 86% near Paekakariki may be largely cars, leaving the truck volume still very high.

So why so little benefit for many of these communities, even using NZTA’s calculations which are likely to be optimistic?

One answer is the design of TGM. With so few entrances to the road, people who live in the more southern coastal communities and commute won’t be able to use it. So it is really only the commuters from north of Mackays who will bother.

The other problem is traffic induction. It is well recognised internationally that extra roads equals extra traffic. The assessment for NZTA found that this will apply to TGM as well. They found that there would be induced traffic, created partly by people doing more trips and partly by people moving off rail onto the roads. The extra road capacity is also likely to encourage people to travel at peak times rather than on the shoulders.

What Transmission Gully would do to the region’s transport systems

So what does that mean for the overall transport system? It means more traffic overall, a loss of income for the rail system and therefore less money to improve it, and a sharper peak.

All that extra traffic has to come from somewhere and go somewhere. TGM users aren’t travelling from one part of TGM to another part. So more traffic overall means more traffic and more congestion in Kapiti, in Ngauranga Gorge, in Wellington City. And that traffic will be more of a problem if it is concentrated in the peak. And the pressure will be on for yet more roads – Grenada Petone, a second Terrace Tunnel, the Kapiti Expressway. Stephen Joyce has said that TGM is needed to make the Kapiti Expressway work, and the Kapiti Expressway is needed to feed traffic into TGM.

If the ability to improve the rail system is lost, because all the money has been spent on roads and patronage has also reduced, there is a risk of our public transport systems entering a downward spiral of the sort we saw in the 1950s, with declining quality of service leading to declining patronage, leading to declining services… Which will be a problem for those using TGM who need the rail as an alternative, but a disaster for those who can’t – the increasing number of individuals and households that won’t be able to afford to commute by car as fuel prices rise, or that can’t get a drivers licence.

I suspect the knight’s armour is black– the colour of oil. The penguins in Tauranga would tell you that black isn’t always a flattering colour.

- Paula Warren

A few facts

Fact 1 – there’s a large roundabout in south Wellington. It happens to have a cricket ground in it. And for the record, it is called the “Basin” because it was to be a shipping basin back in the days before the 1855 earthquake. Kent and Cambridge Terraces were made wide enough for shipping channels, not for cars. But that means it’s perfect for light rail.

Fact 2 – it is part of State Highway 1, which makes NZTA think it should be huge and fast and made for cars.

Fact 3 – it’s in the middle of a city and doesn’t really go anywhere. I mean, there isn’t much down there except an airport and a rather wide and unbridgeable strait. The real end of SH 1 is at the ferry terminal.

Fact 4 – it’s a bit congested at some times of the day. It can take whole seconds to get through it, perhaps even minutes on a very bad day. But you could say the same for Newtown. Or Kilbirnie. Or in fact most major intersections on Wellington’s main roads.

Fact 5 – some buses go through the Basin. Not all – a lot go up Taranaki Street or through the Pirie St bus tunnel. But quite a lot.

So let’s face it, it’s just another Wellington roundabout with the typical sort of congestion problems that you get in a city where too many people drive and the public transport system doesn’t work well enough.

So what should we to our problematic roundabout?

NZTA says we have to have grade separation. That means that cars going in one direction are above or below the cars going the other way. Voila! No intersection. No problem.

And they’ve looked at all the options and decided in their wisdom that the only affordable way to achieve that is to make some cars go upwards – build a bridge (that’s a flyover to everyone else).

The Architecture Centre had a look at it and said that while that might be cheaper, it would be much nastier. Making some cars go down through a tunnel would give us a lovely memorial park.

And Wellington City looked at it and said that they liked the idea of a park, but not the idea of spending more money right now, but they didn’t much like the flyover…

And Greater Wellington said that they felt obliged to support the flyover because it was the only answer to the public transport problems and what the Corridor Plan they had signed said we had to have.

Confused yet? You should be. Because….

More facts

Fact 6 – it isn’t what the Corridor Plan said had to happen. In fact, more road capacity at the Basin will probably have the opposite effect to what the Corridor Plan set out to achieve – improve public transport through the central city to the airport and make life easier for cyclists and pedestrians.

Fact 7 – you don’t need grade separation to fix the public transport problem. So that’s a red herring unless what you are discussing is a memorial park.

Fact 8 – grade separation of any sort costs a lot of money that could be spent on other things.

What we really need is…

Fix the inefficiencies in the bus system. Greater Wellington is in the middle of a review that is proposing to do just that, by creating a more efficient overall network. Go GW.

Provide bus priority through the whole Golden Mile, around the Basin and into Newtown. That can be done now. WCC has lots of designs – they just need more interest from councillors to doing it. But they are starting. Go WCC.

Those two measures will remove most of the delays for bus services from Island Bay, and give more frequent and reliable services.

And all by passing some bylaws and investing in some paint and other cheap things. And without grade separation.

And then we can spend all those other millions on light rail to the airport.

And then people will use public transport instead of taxis and cars, and we won’t need a second tunnel and an expressway through Hataitai.

And we’ll have even more money left over to spend on more exciting things…..

– Paula Warren

Wellington City Council has come out against the NZTA’s Basin Reserve flyover plans – but the Economic Committee of Greater Wellington (aka the Wellington Regional Council) voted to support the flyover.

Now you can let the full Wellington Regional Council know what you think of that decision. The full Council will be considering the issue on Tuesday 1 November at 9.30am, and there’s a chance for public participation at the start of the meeting, which takes place at 142 Wakefield St, Wellington.

If you want to voice your opposition, the best option is to ask to speak. Ring Greater Wellington on 04 384 5708 the day before the meeting and say you’d like to speak, and then turn up on the day. If you can turn up, but don’t want to speak, come along anyway, as your presence will be felt.

And if you can’t make it on the day, you can still help! Before 1
November, send an email calling for Greater Wellington to oppose the flyover to Councillor Paul Bruce, Paul.Bruce (at) greens.org.nz, and he will table the emails he receives at the meeting.

The Wellington City Council’s opposition to the flyover has already made NZTA’s life more difficult. Let’s cause them some more embarrassment!

As you probably know, consultation on the NZ Transport Agency’s ill-conceived flyover designs have now closed. But we’re increasingly concerned that the Agency intends ignoring the groundswell of opposition, as they did in a previous stage of consultation – where 79% of submissions were opposed to a flyover. So we think it’s time to show how committed Wellingtonians are to keeping the Basin Reserve as a green space in the centre of our city.

So please come and show your solidarity and tell the politicians to ‘bowl the flyover’ by lending us your arms to give the Basin Reserve a hug of protection. We’ll be linking arms around the ground, listening to a few speakers and enjoying some great music. Bring your friends, bring your family and tell everyone you know to come along and help us save the Basin.

Join us at the Cambridge Terrace entrance to the Basin Reserve at 12 noon on Sunday 25 September for speakers, information and music.

Paula Warren has written an excellent paper about transport disadvantage. It’s too long to post in full here, but this post includes an introduction and a downloadable version of the paper in PDF format. If you are interested in transport issues, access to the services provided by transport, or equity issues, you should read this paper.

What is transport disadvantage?

In a modern society we need to move around to access education, jobs, events,
recreational activities, and social and cultural networks.  Some individuals and
families in our society cannot easily travel to the opportunities they would like to use. They suffer transport disadvantage.

A person or family can also be considered to suffer transport disadvantage (or
transport poverty) if the cost of transport reduces their ability to pay for other basic items.  For example a rural family on a low income may need several cars to allow all its members to travel to work and education, and that may leave no money for things like healthy housing, medical bills, and even food.

A person may also be transport disadvantaged if transport availability restricts where they can live. For example a young person without a drivers licence may be able to live a full life in Wellington, but be transport disadvantaged in Whangarei,and therefore not be able to consider moving to that city.

You can download and read the rest of Paula’s paper Transport Disadvantage: A Significant Issue in an Unequal Society.

Yesterday’s Solution

In 2011, you would think two considerations would be central to transport planning; the need to reduce carbon emissions and dependence on oil. Think again…

The New Zealand Transport Agency has released for consultation its scheme for the inner city section (Cobham Drive to Buckle St) of its grand Levin to Wellington Airport superhighway. What the scheme amounts to is a road building extravaganza that reeks of the 1960s and 1970s.

The salient point about NZTA’s consultation is that it offers no choice. The key projects including a flyover at the Basin Reserve and a second Mt Victoria Tunnel are a fait accompli. So the public is not given any meaningful options, such as the public transport alternative.

What many countries have realised is that, in this era, the last thing we need (i.e. our lowest priority for transport infrastructure) is more roads. Other countries are starting to think about more efficient ways for people to move around. As an example, France has halted motorway construction and dozens of its cities are investing in modern trams.

Investment in public transport in the Wellington region would deliver transport infrastructure for this century, not the last. It would also eliminate the need for more motorway building. In her 2010 mayoral campaign Celia Wade Brown declared support for light rail (modern trams) in Wellington. The reason is obvious; Wellington is among those cities that are particularly well suited to modern trams.

Anyone who has used modern trams in an Australian, European or North American city will know just what a superior form of public transport they are. With their high capacity, level boarding, speed and frequency modern trams attract patronage. Because of their advantages, hundreds of cities internationally are now building or expanding tram systems.

Used in combination with rail and bus, modern trams have the potential to transform public transport for Wellington and the region and render more motorways across the city redundant. A tram line running from Wellington station to Courtenay Place, the Regional Hospital in Newtown, and ultimately the airport, would bring a range of benefits for Wellington and the region.

With an interchange at Wellington station, a tram line would extend the reach of the suburban rail network across the CBD and beyond. Integrating the tram route with rail and bus networks would allow for a great expansion of convenient public transport journeys in the region. The entire regional public transport network would become more attractive to use because the core (and busiest) part of the network would offer a high quality service. International experience demonstrates that where a quality public transport alternative to private motoring exists people will use it.

Trams also have a range of environmental and aesthetic benefits. Being electric powered, and emission free, they are a sustainable and resilient form of transport. They can be put into the existing urban landscape and would not require massive and unsightly infrastructure to be built across a wide swathe of the city.

And what would a tram line cost? A realistic estimate would be around $300m, including a fleet of modern trams. That figure compares well to the sums needed to build a second Mt Victoria Tunnel ($180M) and the Basin Flyover ($80m) and show a tram line is affordable. The real issue is value for money.

In an age of austerity, before hundreds of millions of dollars are sunk into motorway expansion the merits of a public transport solution for the region’s transport needs should be examined. Now is not the time to build outdated transport infrastructure.

Brian Jameson

July 2011

Brian Jameson is a member of Trans-Action an email based group that researches and advocates for public transport. Email  bjameson (at) paradise.net.nz

This is our chance to tell John Key, Steven Joyce and their mates what we think of the planned Kapiti Expressway and the other “Roads of National Significance” aka massive and horribly expensive white elephants. For more information, contact Bianca Begovich, ph: 021 641 123, or visit the Save Kapiti website.

One of the world’s top energy officials has issued a stark warning that’s rippled through global oil markets. Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the International Energy Agency, says the age of cheap oil is over and high prices are here to stay.

Fatih Birol talked to National Radio’s Kathryn Ryan on 25 May 2011, and you can listen to the interview here:

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2489885/is-the-age-of-cheap-oil-over.asx

http://podcast.radionz.co.nz/ntn/ntn-20110525-0922-is_the_age_of_cheap_oil_over-048.mp3

Patrick Morgan made the following notes on the talk – notes that are well worth reading. Point your favourite local transport planner to those links above – even better, persuade Steven Joyce to listen!

Key points

• Era of cheap oil is over, for ever
• Learn to live with higher prices
• This is a major risk to global economy

Discussion

• peak oil is a reality
• peak production of conventional oil was 2006
• high prices are here to stay

High prices are caused by:

1. strong demand from China and developing countries, esp
   transport sector…
2. while production has some ‘challenges’. Production is
   declining in many countries, few alternatives to Middle East oil
3. unrest in Middle East / Africa creates uncertainty.

Other points Fatih Birol made during the discussion

Production could be increased if producing countries decide to.
Seasonal demand expected in next few months, driving season
in US
China had a dry year so less hydro-electric generation and
more from fossil fuel

Era of cheap oil is over, for ever
Learn to live with higher prices
global economy vulnerable since the financial crisis
unconventional sources can take up the slack e.g. Natural
gas, Venezuela, Canada can add 10m b/d
Will Middle East decide to increase production?
4 new Saudi Arabias needed to meet projected growth in
demand. A tall order.
How can we move from an oil-based economy?
We need to start now.
Ryan: Why did IEA dis peak oil as recently as 2008?
Birol claimed IEA was the first to make a study of
production decline.
Many govts taking oil security seriously e.g China, US,
European countries
90% of growth comes from cars, trucks, jets.
1. Use these more efficiently. A major issue.
2. China: electric cars, could reduce oil dependence
3. use biofuels
Oil dependence is our Achilles heel.
High prices hurt economic recovery.
Sub-Saharan Africa is affected the most.
Will lead to new frictions between nations.
OPEC meets is 2 weeks.
Oil prices could come down if producers tell the markets
they will increase production.
US govt could release stockpiles to reduce pressure on
prices.
Forecasts 98m b/d by 2035, mainly from Iraq, Saudi and
unconventionals.

From our friends at Save Kapiti:

Submissions are due in by 5pm tomorrow the 27th of May 2011 on the..

GOVERNMENT POLICY STATEMENT ON LAND TRANSPORT FUNDING 2012/13 – 2021/22
http://www.transport.govt.nz/ourwork/Documents/Engagement%20Document%20for%20GPS%202012.pdf

They are advocating cutting spending on virtually all areas except for on the Roads of National Significance, which they want to increase.

Gareth Hughes from the Green Party has done an excellent job on putting a submission together.
You can sign your name to and send though. It will take about 1 minute out of your busy day:

http://blog.greens.org.nz/2011/05/26/reminder-submit-for-better-transport-funding-plans-now/

Please feel free to (copy and) forward this through your networks.